Regional Trends: Small Business Delinquency Index Predictions for 2024

33.3 million businesses in the United States qualify as small businesses. 1

In recognition of Small Business Month, we produced a 2024 Market Trends and Predictions Report focusing on the  small business landscape. 

Within the complex fabric of the U.S. economy, differences across regions offer clues about wider economic trends. Examining the Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) across different regions unveils contrasting stories of resilience and stability. 

Throughout 2023, disparities in the SBDI arose across U.S. states. Half of these states experienced increases beyond the national average of 50 basis points. The Southwest and Southeast regions saw the most significant surges in delinquency rates. These areas were known for robust recoveries post-pandemic. However, now these areas are facing the repercussions of cooling economies. 

States in the Midwest displayed comparatively smaller SBDI increases. Despite slower job and income growth compared to other regions, the Midwest boasts more stable small business credit conditions. This stability, although accompanied by its own set of challenges, indicates a resilience rooted in consistent economic performance. 

The economic dynamics at play in different regions shed light on broader trends and challenges faced by small businesses: While rapid recovery may initially buoy economic indicators, sustaining growth and stability over the long term remains crucial. In the Southwest and Southeast, the surge in delinquency rates serves as a reminder of the cyclical nature of economic prosperity and the importance of sustainable growth strategies. 

Looking ahead, addressing the unique challenges faced by different regions requires unique insights and tailored recommendations. From navigating changing market dynamics to knowing which solutions are right for your needs, Equifax experts keep a pulse on the industry to guide your business forward. 

Take advantage of our small business resources by viewing the Market Pulse webinar page, and for more insights shared in real time from our panel of experts, join us for our monthly Market Pulse webinar.

1. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/business/small-business-statistics/#sources_section