What Did We Learn from 2024’s Economic Outcomes?

During the December Market Pulse webinar, our panelists analyzed 2024 economic outcomes. 

Wescott Strategic Advisors President Dr. Robert Wescott shared a macroeconomic update. Afterward, he was joined by Equifax Risk Advisor Jesse Hardin and Fiserv Head of Consumer Insights Mike Spriggs, who led a discussion around 2024 holiday spending.  

Macroeconomic Observations and Updates with Dr. Robert Wescott, Wescott Strategic Advisors¹

The U.S. economy has grown about 12 percent since Q4 in 2019, and we are experiencing two-to three-times faster economic growth than every other industrial country in the world. Now, in 2024, three factors have boosted the economy while setting the stage for continued economic growth in 2025: 

1. Healthy labor market

2. Rising household wealth 

3. Open consumer wallets

The U.S. labor market remains remarkably strong. Although the unemployment rate has experienced a slight increase in recent months, 2024 is still expected to be one of the best years for employment in the past 50 years. This trend reflects a resilient job market where opportunities remain abundant for workers across various industries, even as economic conditions shift.

Meanwhile, rising household wealth has been providing a significant boost to the U.S. economy. Over the past four quarters, household wealth has surged by an impressive $8.4 trillion. This increase, driven by factors like rising home values and gains in investments, has strengthened consumer confidence and spending.

The stock market has also played a critical role in this positive outlook. Following the U.S. presidential election, stock prices have climbed, adding even more to household wealth. This upward trend not only benefits current investors but also signals potential gains for consumers in 2025, as increased wealth often leads to higher spending and investment.

If current U.S. economic policies stay on track, these trends point to continued steady economic growth in 2025. Expectations include ongoing GDP growth, gradually decreasing inflation, stable job numbers, and three anticipated interest rate cuts. 

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Discussion on 2024 Holiday Spending²

Looking back on the data from 2023, holiday spending patterns showcased some interesting shifts. Retailers launched their holiday campaigns earlier than usual, aiming to capture shoppers’ attention well ahead of traditional timelines. Tap-to-pay technology saw a remarkable 46 percent increase in usage, signaling a growing preference for convenient, contactless payment methods. Perhaps most notably, small businesses outperformed the overall market, with their sales growing faster than those of larger retailers — a testament to consumers' support for local and independent businesses.

Now, as we move through 2024, new trends are already shaping the holiday shopping landscape. Year-to-date spending growth has shifted away from retail, with consumers focusing their budgets on leisure and services. Despite this, there’s no shortage of enthusiasm among holiday shoppers. Early indicators, such as Black Friday and Cyber Week results, reveal nearly 12 percent growth in sales compared to last year. Meanwhile, brick-and-mortar stores are experiencing an uptick in foot traffic, suggesting that in-person shopping is making a comeback.

The key takeaway from these trends is a broader shift in how and where people are spending their money. While retail growth is slowing down, other sectors like travel, leisure, and services are seeing a significant rise. This trend points to a change in consumer priorities, as people increasingly value experiences and personal enjoyment alongside traditional gift-giving. Businesses in these areas are well-positioned to capitalize on this evolving holiday spending behavior.

Stay in the Know 

To receive the full experience and detail from the Market Pulse webinar, you have to be there. We hope you will join us for our January 2025 Market Pulse webinar taking place on Thursday, January 23, 2025, when we will navigate Gen Z insights and how to drive profitable growth throughout 2025. 

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Sources:

1. Dr. Robert Wescott, President, Wescott Strategic Advisors, 2024

2. Equifax Market Pulse webinar, December 5, 2024 

*The opinions, estimates, and forecasts presented herein are for general information use only. This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. No person should consider distribution of this material as making any representation or warranty with respect to such material and should not rely upon it as such. Equifax does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published herein represent the views of the presenters as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Equifax or its management.