Starting ahead is critical in today's economy. As we discussed in last month's Market Pulse webinar, 2022 was full of challenges, but knowing what’s to come is only the first step in succeeding in this economy. Next, you need to know how you can take these hidden risks and turn them around into opportunities.
In our January Market Pulse webinar, we discussed how you can be the first among your competitors to achieve success in a time of economic uncertainty. We also discussed how leaders in these industries are using smart data and insights to reach the right new customers with confidence, even through the downturn. That is why we are recapping the key points our panel presented in our January Market Pulse webinar so you are well-prepared to take advantage of opportunities for smart growth through data, insights, and analytics.
This month’s webinar’s speakers included Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive; Dr. Robert Wescott, former Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and President of Keybridge, LLC; and Tom O'Neill, Risk Advisor at Equifax.
A look behind the 2023 curtain
Dr. Robert Wescott, President of Keybridge, LLC and former special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy at the National Economic Council, opened the webinar by stating what we all have been thinking, and that is that we are in perplexing times.
Some highlights and key points Wescott presented include:
U.S. consumer spending has been sustained by stimulus checks and pent-up demand. But, pent-up demand has now been “spent out” along with stimulus checks.
The labor market adds jobs, but the pace of job growth has slowed. According to Wescott, the number of job postings on Indeed declined as 2022 progressed.
Expectation for the U.S. economy in 2023: growth pause, rising unemployment, slowly easing inflation, and cresting interest rates.
More companies are diversifying their supply chains. Production costs are likely to rise.
Consumer Credit Trends
Tom O’Neill, Risk Advisor at Equifax, continued the webinar with the latest consumer credit trends overview from Equifax. Key points O’Neill presented during our webinar included:
First Mortgage originations through September 2022 have come off the year-to-date (YTD) boom in 2021 and have fallen to 2019 levels; Auto YTD originations continue, and subprime share has dropped from 2018-2020 levels.
Auto Origination balances have continued their strong 2 year run, while origination units have decreased YTD from 2021.
Auto Leases have declined YTD from 2021.
September 2022 YTD Bankcard $ limit originations continue to grow year-over-year; In Figure 1, you can see that subprime share has declined since its high in 2021 (left), and the number of new cards originated September YTD is above all prior year levels (right).
Delinquencies on Bankcard and Private Label are rising but are still below pre-pandemic levels.
First Mortgage delinquencies remain at historic lows.
For the complete experience, download the webinar deck and watch our full recording here.
And to learn how to navigate this market and stay resilient right alongside your customers despite global and domestic pressures, check out these recommendations.
* The opinions, estimates and forecasts presented herein are for general information use only. This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. No person should consider distribution of this material as making any representation or warranty with respect to such material and should not rely upon it as such. Equifax does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published herein represent the views of the presenters as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Equifax or its management.
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