Navigating Economic Uncertainty: A 2025 Outlook for Commercial Lenders

For many commercial lenders and service providers the economic landscape in 2025 is a lot like driving on a foggy night. Visibility is limited, the road is unpredictable, and the natural response is to slow down. For businesses, policymakers, and consumers alike, uncertainty has become the new normal. From potential shifts in trade policies to concentrated job growth, the Federal Reserve and the broader economy must navigate this challenging terrain with care. Find full details in the Main Street Lending Report, and read on for key takeaways.  

For more data on how small businesses performed, check out the latest small business lending data on the Equifax Newsroom.

Potential Slowing in the Face of Uncertainty

While inflation has slowed, it hasn’t been enough to inspire confidence. 2024 numbers did not bring the relief many were hoping for, and the Federal Reserve seems inclined to cut interest rates at a cautious pace. Evidence suggests that we’ll likely see the first moves in Q2, with two cuts expected this year — possibly more in the second half as clearer trends emerge. The message here is simple: Be cautious and stay prepared.

Beyond inflation, job growth adds another layer of complexity. While the labor market has shown resilience, much of the growth remains concentrated in just a few industries. This imbalance raises questions about the broader stability of the economy. If this trend continues, it could exacerbate challenges for workers in slower-growing sectors, leaving certain communities vulnerable.

A Data-Driven Approach

Amid the uncertainty, one thing remains clear: Focusing on data is essential. Whether you’re a policymaker, business leader, or individual, you need decisions grounded in reliable data to help navigate the foggy economic road ahead.

In fact, recent credit data offers a small but encouraging sign. Delinquencies have seen a slight dip. While this isn’t a game-changer, it is a reminder that not all signals are negative. Small wins can still be meaningful, especially in an uncertain environment.

Looking Ahead

The Federal Reserve appears to be playing it safe, and several businesses are following suit.  While the fog may lift in the second half of the year, for now, it’s all about staying cautious, watching the data, and being prepared for shifts in policy, labor markets, and trade. With the right tools and strategies, you can safely navigate even the foggiest nights. When uncertainty becomes reality, slow down, focus on what matters, and trust the data to guide you.

You can find our monthly Small Business Insights, National Consumer Credit Trends reports, the Market Pulse webinar and podcast, and more small business insights from the experts at our Trends & Insights hub. 

Sources:

1. Equifax Main Street Lending Report - Data as of Nov. 2024 - Published Jan. 2025